Friday, February 23, 2007

Risk-management

Today, we had our "Principles of Management" paper. There were a couple of problems based on the 'Pay-off' matrix and the 'Opportunity-Loss' matrix. I just wanted to find out whether both will give the same answer, given the probabilistic distribution of each event. While going through some pdfs, I came across this :

In decision-making under pure uncertainty, the decision maker has absolutely no knowledge, not even about the likelihood of occurrence for any state of nature. In such situations, the decision-maker's behavior is purely based on his/her attitude toward the unknown. Some of these behaviors are optimistic, pessimistic, and least regret, among others.

Optimist: The glass is half-full.
Pessimist: The glass is half-empty.
Manager: The glass is twice as large as it needs to be.

Optimists are right; so are the pessimists. It is up to you to choose which you will be. The optimist sees opportunity in every problem; the pessimist sees problem in very opportunity. Both optimists and pessimists contribute to our society. The optimist invents the airplane and the pessimist the parachute.

Nice, eh ? Especially the last line.

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